THE “TRIPP” AS A STABILIZING FACTOR IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS? OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

Abstract

The “TRIPP” initiative, although not formally codified as a singular institutional framework, can be conceptualized as a set of coordinated transport and infrastructure development projects in the South Caucasus aimed at enhancing interregional connectivity between Europe and Asia. Emerging in the context of renewed diplomatic engagement - particularly under the mediation of the United State - and potential agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the initiative is increasingly associated with the strategic expansion of the Middle Corridor.

From a geopolitical and geo-economic perspective, TRIPP offers significant opportunities for regional stabilization. By fostering economic interdependence, infrastructure integration, and diversified transit routes, it may contribute to confidence-building and long-term peacebuilding in a region marked by over three decades of conflict and instability following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The emphasis on principles such as sovereignty, territorial integrity, and jurisdictional control constitutes a normative foundation for sustainable cooperation.

However, the initiative also entails notable challenges. Persistent political tensions, unresolved aspects of the Armenia-Azerbaijan former conflict, and competing regional narratives - such as Azerbaijan’s discourse on “Western Azerbaijan” and the concept of the “Zangezur Corridor” - introduce elements of strategic ambiguity and latent instability. These factors may undermine trust and complicate the implementation of cooperative infrastructure projects in the South Caucasus.

Furthermore, TRIPP must be situated within a broader geopolitical context involving regional and extra-regional actors, including Turkey, Iran, the European Union, and Russia, each pursuing distinct strategic and economic interests in the South Caucasus. The interplay of these actors shapes both the opportunities and constraints of this initiative where the principal role is played by the United States.

This study argues that while TRIPP holds the potential to function as a stabilizing factor by promoting regional connectivity and economic cooperation, its success will depend on the alignment of political will, the management of competing narratives, and the establishment of robust institutional mechanisms ensuring transparency, inclusivity, and respect for international norms.